Tuesday, December 06, 2016

How accurate were the national polls?

It seems like they were highly inaccurate, doesn't it? However, if you look at the national polls, they were pretty right on the money. Hillary now has about a 2% lead in the popular vote. That's pretty darn close to where most polls had it (The RealClearPolitics average had it at 3.2%)

A study was commissioned by Fordham University to look into it, and this is what they found...
The pollsters that were closest to the final result included McClatchy/Marist and IBD/TIPP. But others were also close — including the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. Given the sample sizes and underlying margins of error in these polls, most of these polls were not that far from the actual result. In only two cases was any bias in the poll statistically significant. The Los Angeles Times/USC poll, which had Trump with a national lead throughout the campaign, and the NBC News/Survey Monkey poll, which overestimated Clinton’s share of the vote.

In other words, the national polls were good. The state polls, on the other hand, were a complete cluster-****.